President Trump leads Kamala Harris by 2 points in both the head-to-head and multi-candidate ballots among all registered voters nationally accoridng to the latest NYT/ Siena national poll.
Read the Trump campaign’s statement below:
In their latest survey, we continue to see a sustained pattern of President Trump overperforming with black voters (17-74 among registered voters; Trump +5 compared to 2020 exits and Harris running 13 points behind Biden) and Hispanic voters (42-51 among registered voters; Trump +10 compared to 2020 exits and Harris running 14 points behind Biden).
President Trump also continues to overperform among young voters. He trails by just 1 point (46-47) among voters aged 18-29, again +10 compared to 2020 exits while Harris runs 13 points behind Biden.
The memo noted previously how President Trump regularly overperforms his standing in NYT / Siena surveys of battleground states compared to the reported 2020 results. The same is true of their national surveys.
As you may remember, NYT / Siena released silly numbers in their August battleground state surveys. Their polls reflected electorates where Biden won Michigan by 7, Pennsylvania by 5, Wisconsin by 9, Arizona by 7, and Nevada by 9. None of those were anywhere near reality.
Perhaps they took our notes on this to heart, as their national survey released today shows 37% of registered voters having voted for President Trump in 2020 compared to 40% having voted for Joe Biden – considerably more accurate to the reported national results than any of those battleground surveys from last month.
